The Alliance of Sahel States: A New Era in West African Geopolitics

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—emerged in 2024 as a defiant response to Western influence and ECOWAS pressure. Born from military coups and anti-colonial sentiment, this confederation seeks economic independence, military cooperation, and regional integration. With Mali’s Assimi Goïta as its first president, the AES challenges traditional alliances, embraces Russia, and pushes for a new Sahelian order.

Origins and Formation

From Crisis to Confederation

• September 2023: AES began as a mutual defense pact after ECOWAS threatened military intervention in Niger following its coup.

• July 2024: Formalized as a confederation with a rotating presidency, starting with Mali’s Goïta.

• January 2025: Fully withdrew from ECOWAS, rejecting its "neocolonial" policies.

Why the AES?

• Security: Joint counterterrorism against groups like ISIS-Sahel and JNIM.

• Anti-Western Shift: Expelled French troops, replaced with Wagner Group mercenaries.

• Economic Sovereignty: Plans for a new currency to replace the CFA franc.

Key Features of the AES

1. Military Collaboration

• 5,000-strong joint force to combat jihadists.

• Shared intelligence and cross-border operations.

• Cut ties with Western militaries, relying on Russian support.

2. Economic Integration

• Common market for trade and agriculture.

• 0.5% customs tax on non-AES imports (effective March 2025).

• Proposed monetary union to replace the CFA franc.

3. Political Vision

• Long-term goal: Federalization into a single state.

• AES passports & ID cards introduced in 2025 (though facing recognition issues).

• Anti-French policies: Downgraded French language status, renamed colonial landmarks.

Challenges and Controversies

International Backlash

• ECOWAS: Imposed sanctions, but AES accelerated withdrawal.

• Ukraine Conflict: AES accused Ukraine of supporting rebels, severed diplomatic ties.

• Western Aid Cuts: Sweden ended support to Mali over human rights concerns.

Internal Struggles

• Economic Risks: Leaving ECOWAS could disrupt trade.

• Legitimacy Questions: Military juntas ruling without elections.

• Terrorism Threat: Insurgencies remain entrenched.

Future Prospects

Opportunities

• Resource Pooling: Gold, uranium, and agriculture potential.

• Strategic Alliances: Deepening ties with Russia, China, and Guinea.

• Infrastructure Projects: Energy grids, railways, and telecom links planned.

Risks

• Isolation: Losing ECOWAS trade benefits.

• Instability: Coup risks persist in all three nations.

• Wagner’s Role: Dependence on Russian mercenaries may backfire.

Conclusion

The Alliance of Sahel States marks a bold shift in West African geopolitics—rejecting Western influence, embracing autocracy, and betting on regional unity. While its anti-colonial rhetoric resonates locally, economic and security hurdles loom. Will the AES become a sustainable bloc, or collapse under internal and external pressures?